Re-thinking the NCAA women's basketball top tier
Plus, top-16 seed reveal reactions and looking ahead to LSU at South Carolina
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more weekly (or at least close to it) throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
A few weeks back, at the midpoint of the regular season, I evaluated the title contenders for 2023. Quite a bit has changed since then. We’ve seen Ohio State pick up four losses in five games, and Stanford has dropped to surprising games to USC and Washington. UConn lost back-to-back games for the first time since 1993, following a narrow loss to South Carolina with a head-scratcher at Marquette. Meanwhile, in the Big Ten Indiana and Iowa have established themselves at the top of the conference, and amongst the top nationally as well. So, beyond South Carolina, where does that leave the national title contender conversation?
Stanford and UConn, despite the last week, are still very much in the picture. While UConn’s short bench and fatigue caught up with them against Marquette on Wednesday, we learned about this current group of Huskies last Sunday. UConn played South Carolina closely, holding the Gamecocks to their narrowest margin of victory this season (four points). In that game, Aaliyah Edwards solidified that she can go toe to toe with the country’s best bigs, and the Huskies proved they can play at the top level - even without Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme. Getting healthy is still a critical part of UConn’s post season outlook, but there’s no reason to consider them out of the picture.
The same goes for Stanford, who decimated a good Arizona team on the road Thursday night, rebounding nicely from last weekend’s Washington loss. While the Cardinal has faltered a couple times in Pac-12 play, there’s not a consistent issue plaguing Stanford that has caused those losses. They’re still at the top of the Pac-12 standings. Haley Jones and Cameron Brink continue to be one of the best duos in the country, and are capable to carrying this team to a trophy in April.
Speaking of elite duos, with Grace Berger back on the court alongside Mackenzie Holmes has Indiana looking like a team that could contend for a national title as well. Holmes, not unlike UConn’s Edwards, has made huge strides forward in the frontcourt for the Hoosiers this season. She’s averaging 22 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and had a convincing edge over Monika Czinano in Indiana’s win over Iowa on Thursday. Berger also made the biggest statement since her return against Iowa with 26 points, nine boards and six assists. The Hoosiers have just one loss on the season, to Michigan State when Berger was out with injury, and have been rolling since. Indiana will be tested by the end of their Big Ten slate, but if they hold strong in those games, they’ll be among the favorites to cut down the nets.
While defining the title contenders as the No. 1 seeds in Thursday’s selection committee reveal seems obvious, the four aforementioned teams seem to have separated themselves from the pack as we enter the final stretch of the regular season. The next group of teams feel like they’re a step behind the first group. For LSU, it wouldn’t be surprising for the lack of regular season competition to catch up to the Tigers with an early exit in March. For Utah and Iowa, defensive holes will leave the Utes and Hawkeyes too vulnerable against top competition. Both teams are allowing their opponents to shoot 40 percent from the floor on the season, with Utah allowing an average of 64.2 points per game, and Iowa allowing 71.3 points per game.
Top-16 seed reveal reactions
The NCAA women’s basketball committee released their first look at the top-16 seeds in the NCAA tournament, should it start today, on Thursday.
South Carolina is virtually a lock for a one-seed at this point. The Gamecocks could afford a loss or two, and still comfortably land on the top line. Indiana has a tough remaining stretch of Big Ten play, but the Hoosiers are likely to stay on the top line as well. For UConn and Stanford, positions are less secure. If LSU loses to South Carolina on Sunday, both teams will be less vulnerable to falling off the top-line. If not, they may need to win out to earn a No. 1 seed. That’s tougher for Stanford, which still has UCLA, and a road trip to Colorado and Utah looming in Pac-12 play. The Huskies don’t have an easy road either, with Creighton at home and Villanova on the road in the next week.
I threaded some additional reactions to Thursday’s top-16 on Twitter, here:
Looking ahead: what’s on the line for LSU on Sunday?
LSU has their most consequential game of the regular season on Sunday afternoon, in a top-5 matchup with South Carolina. It’s the Tigers’ lone chance before March to show if they’re a part of the upper echelon of teams in the national title contender discussion this season.
Here’s a few things I am looking for from the Tigers on Sunday:
How do they compete? This game is less about if the final result is a win or loss for LSU. Obviously, defeating the Gamecocks at home would make a statement. A loss isn’t necessarily a bad thing though, as long as the Tigers keep it close.
Angel Reese’s performance: Reese is no stranger to South Carolina, and her 20 point double-double when Maryland played in Columbia last season helped the Terps stay in the game. However, now Reese is going to be the main focal point of the Gamecocks’ scout and game plan. How she responds to different looks thrown at her won’t only determine this game, but be telling of how she will be able to adapt against top opponents in March.
Will LSU’s roll players step up? The Tigers can’t beat South Carolina with Reese and Alexis Morris alone. They need contributions from the rest of the roster against the gamecocks. Freshman Flau’jae Johnson has been their best third option this season, but has only scored in double figures in two of LSU’s last five games. How Johnson, as well as LaDazhia Williams and Jasmine Carson respond in this game will teach us a lot about the Tigers.
Can the Tigers keep up without the three-ball? LSU has scored just 19 percent of their points from deep this season, which ranks among the bottom 25 teams in the nation. South Carolina has a similar reliance on the inside game, but the Tigers are going to have a much tougher time running the ball through the post than they have against any other team this season.
Great stuff!
This is well written...but come on Megan--can't be writing for an analytics-ish website and quote things like FG% and PPG allowed for reasons why a team can't win. Defensive rating and eFG% allowed are far better measures...as they are not impacted by pace/games going into OT etc...and Def Rating takes into account how often a team fouls and allows 3FGs, which DEF FG% doesn't. Iowa plays at the fastest pace of any of the top teams by FAR. Which is going to impact their PPG allowed.