Evaluating the 2023 NCAA women's basketball title contenders
Taking a look at which teams have distinguished themselves as championship contenders at the midpoint of the 2022-23 season
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We’ve reached the midpoint of the 2022-23 NCAA women’s basketball season. With non-conference competition largely wrapped up and league play underway, the national title picture for 2023 is starting to come into focus. Four teams have, in my opinion, separated themselves from the rest of the country as having what it takes to finish the season cutting the nets down in Dallas.
South Carolina
It’s not surprising to see the Gamecocks on this list. The reigning national champions started the season as favorites to repeat, and remain in that position. While South Carolina’s success in 2021-22 was fueled by the dominance of Aliyah Boston, the Gamecocks’ 16-0 start this season has come from their ability to win in a variety of ways. They still have the best player in the country in Boston, but seven different players have led the team in scoring in at least one game this season.
South Carolina’s depth, and their ability to use a deep rotation night in and night out, has set them apart. Within those rotations the Gamecocks don’t give up size, and that constant influx of tough matchups off the bench is difficult for opponents to compete with. No player on the roster is averaging over 25 minutes per game and nearly the full roster is averaging at least 10 minutes. Additionally, the Gamecocks continues to excel defensively and on the glass - two focus areas that have become synonymous with South Carolina basketball in recent years.
Stanford
While South Carolina has the best player in the country, Stanford has the best duo in Haley Jones and Cameron Brink. Jones does it all for the Cardinal - scoring, facilitating, rebounding, you name it. And, Brink’s presence on the court this season has been emphatic. Stanford’s net rating is a whopping 25.9 points higher when Brink is on the floor than it is when she is on the bench. While South Carolina won the on court battle in November, there is certainly a case to say that when Brink is on the court, Stanford is the best team in the country.
For Stanford, it’s the offense that shines through in their success this season. The Cardinal is ranked first in Her Hoop Stats’ offensive rating. The questions surrounding the point guard position, that lingered at that start of this year, have also largely been answered. Freshman Talana Lepolo has really surprised in her starting role, averaging 4.5 assists per game and ranking in the top four percent nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio. The combination of Lepolo and Jones has been able to smoothly run Stanford’s offense.
UConn
The Huskies have been ravaged by injuries this season, but things seem to be trending upwards as they got both Azzi Fudd, who missed eight games with a right knee injury, and their head coach Geno Auriemma back on Wednesday night. While two players (Caroline Ducharme and Ayanna Patterson) remain in concussion protocol, UConn is starting to approach having a healthy squad.
Despite all the injuries, the Huskies are 14-2 against the toughest strength of schedule in the country (per Massey Ratings) and boast one of the most impressive resumes of wins this season. UConn’s ability to consistently play at a high level against quality competition, while missing multiple starters or only having seven or eight available players has been impressive. Through it all, UConn still leads the country in field goal percentage and assists per game, and ranks in the top five for their total rebounding rate. Prior to losing Fudd, the Huskies looked like the clear No. 3 team in the country. As all the pieces come back together on the court, UConn should look like a team poised to make another Final Four.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are also, unfortunately, no stranger to the injury woes this season. Jacy Sheldon, who was averaging 16 points per game to start the year, has missed 12 games so far and figures to be a huge part of this team when she makes her return. Madison Greene also suffered a season ending injury right before the holidays. Still, Ohio State is undefeated on the season and onto a 4-0 start in Big Ten play.
What has made the Buckeyes almost inevitable so far this season is their press. Ohio State is forcing the fourth most turnovers per game (23.9) in the country. It is hard to win any game with over 20 turnovers, let alone one against a top-five team. Even for the teams that have been able to hang around with the Buckeyes, the pressure eventually wears on them and they can’t quite hang around to finish the game. The press is fueling Ohio State’s offense, as well. The Buckeyes have scored the second most points in the country this season, and over a quarter of those points have come in transition.
A few additional teams are worth keeping an eye on in the national championship race. The below squads haven’t proven themselves to be among the top tier yet, but could play their way into it during the second half of the season.
Indiana: The Hoosiers have also been the victim of unfortunate injuries, but fifth year senior Grace Berger made her return this week. While Indiana only dropped one game in her absence, they haven’t faced much top competition so far this season. Their best win currently came at home over North Carolina, which doesn’t look quite as good as it did at the time. The Tar Heels have really stumbled in the start of ACC play. However, the Big Ten will present plenty of chances for Indiana to be tested.
LSU: The Tigers played a comically weak non-conference schedule and, in a down year for the SEC, are still difficult to judge. Angel Reese has proven that she is going to play at an elite level every night, but we’ve barely seen this team be tested this season. LSU has a four and a half week stretch, starting on January 19th, that features Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina. We’ll learn a lot more about this team from how they fair then.
Notre Dame: The Irish’s start to ACC play has not overwhelmed. While Notre Dame did pick up a dominant win over Boston College, they’ve also scraped past Miami and lost to North Carolina since the holiday break. This team has the right pieces, but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. If the Irish can separate themselves from the pack at the top of the ACC through league play, however, they’ll deserve a spot in the national contender conversation.
GOOD STUFF!