Is LSU a national title contender in 2023?
The Tigers' weak schedule leaves plenty of open questions that should be answered in the coming weeks
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more weekly (or at least close to it) throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
LSU women’s basketball continues to be one of the most perplexing teams to evaluate in the country. The Tigers rank within the top five across multiple rating sources (#3 in the NET, #4 in Her Hoop Stats rating, and #3 in the AP Poll). They’re 18-0 on the season, with 18 consecutive double-doubles from leading scorer and rebounder Angel Reese. But with one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the nation, determining just how good LSU is, is challenging.
At the mid-point of the season, it has become clear that LSU is a top-10 caliber team in this year’s field. Especially amongst some of the surprising results we have seen so far this season, there’s a lot to be said for taking home the win against everyone you should beat. The Tigers have done so in dominant fashion as well, leading the country with an average margin of 38.1 points per game. They’ve had just one game decided by single digits, which can largely be chalked up to an off night against Southeastern Louisiana.
While LSU has only played two teams ranked in the top-50 of Her Hoop Stats’ ratings so far this season (Arkansas and Missouri), they have won those contests by an average of 22 points. The Tigers’ success in those games, and across the season, can largely be attributed to Reese who averaged 19.5 points and 14 rebounds across the two opponents.
Reese, who leads the country in every advances metric per Her Hoop Stats (Win Shares, Win Shares per 40 minutes, and PER), has inserted herself into the national player of the year conversation. But is LSU a part of this year’s national title conversation?
The short answer - maybe. While the Tigers have certainly proven enough to be considered a top-10 team, the leap to a national title contender is harder to make without seeing them against more top competition. The good news is, that question should largely be answered in the coming weeks.
Six of next seven opponents LSU will face are top-50 teams in Her Hoop Stats’ rankings. While South Carolina on February 12th is the marquee matchup for the Tigers, there’s just as much to learn from their games against Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Ole Miss. While none of those opponents are ranked in the AP poll, Alabama and Tennessee are ranked 16th and 17th in the NET rankings and 23rd and 12th in Her Hoop Stats’ ratings, respectively.
While how the Tigers contend in Columbia will be the ultimate litmus test, not just if, but how they win against the rest of the upcoming stretch will be critical to understanding how LSU fits into the national championship race. If the Tigers can win consistently, and most importantly show that they can win in a variety of ways, then they’ll be amongst the favorites to make a trip to Dallas in March - and from there, it’s anyone’s game.
In particular here are some things to keep an eye on for LSU over this tougher stretch of schedule, starting with Arkansas tonight:
Can the Tigers’ offense succeed when their transition opportunities are limited?
Per Synergy, 19.9 percent of LSU’s offensive possessions have come in transition this season. That has helped fuel their nation-leading 88.7 points per game. However, as the Tigers face tougher competition, there will likely be less opportunities to run and create easy looks. How effective their offensive can be in the half court against better teams will be an important element in evaluating the outlook for this team.
How does Angel Reese handle an elite defense?
All signs point to Reese being a force on the court regardless of the opponent, but we will see better defensive schemes thrown at her over this stretch. Reese’ ability to navigate more talented double teams, and others’ ability to step up as she draws more defensive attention will be important - especially against the country’s best defense at South Carolina.
Is the LSU offense too one dimensional?
Per Synergy, nearly 60 percent of the Tigers’ possessions this season have come at the rim, and LSU relies heavily on finishing in the paint in their offensive game plan. While capable from three point range (37.1 percent from deep on the season), less than 20 percent of the Tigers’ scoring attempts come from deep, which ranks among the bottom five percent in the country.
It’s certainly possible to win a national championship without a heavy use of the three ball. South Carolina did it last year, as did Baylor in 2019. However, it will allow defenses to pack the paint and make spacing on the offensive end more challenging. If LSU can continue to dominate inside against better teams, the lack of three point shooting won’t be an issue in their discussion as a national contender. However, if the length of teams like South Carolina and Tennessee bother the Tigers inside, they could face challenges being successful enough on offense against top competition.
How problematic are the turnovers?
This is not an unique question to LSU, as both UConn and Stanford have struggled with turnovers this season but are still amongst the 2023 title contenders. However, the Tigers had 19 turnovers against Missouri and 20 against Arkansas in their last meetings. If those numbers continue to grow above 20 against tougher competition, it could become an insurmountable hurdle. How LSU takes care of the ball in this stretch will tell us more.
Great article and excellent analysis. I'm still upset about you comparing LSU to Princeton, but I'm going to work to move past that. 😜 I also really enjoyed your writing style.