Who could stand in the way of a trip to the Final Four for the top 2023 contenders?
March Madness is here!
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
Happy March Madness! The tournament is officially here with the women’s First Four underway, and the First Round tipping off tomorrow.
In just over two weeks, we will have a national champion. But first, as we look at the road to the Final Four, here’s who could be the biggest obstacle in the way for each of the top contenders this year (more on why these four are the top contenders here).
South Carolina: 2-seed Maryland
The Gamecocks losing prior to the Final Four would be a monstrous upset, and seems unlikely. UCLA could be in South Carolina’s path and played the Gamecocks closely earlier this season, but Maryland may pose the biggest threat. The Terps also met the Gamecocks earlier this season, but without without star Diamond Miller.
Miller is the engine of this Maryland team, leading the Terps in points, rebounds, steals and blocks. Facing this team with Miller on the floor would be a much different look than the earlier season matchup. Additionally, Maryland has vastly improved from where this team was earlier in the season. Their biggest areas of growth have come on the defensive end and in the contributions from their bench. If the Terps can get hot from three, including perimeter success outside of their starters, they might be able to threaten the upset.
However, the glaring number on Maryland’s stat sheet is their defensive rebounding rate, ranking in the bottom third of the nation. Without a better performance on the glass to limit South Carolina’s second chance opportunities, it is hard to imagine Maryland being able to finish off a win should both teams reach the Elite Eight.
Indiana: 4-seed Villanova
To pull this upset off, Villanova will need to be clicking across their starting lineup which hasn’t exactly happened with consistency this year - but has happened on enough occasions to make this potential matchup eye catching. Lucy Olsen will need to be a second offensive weapon, Christina Dalce will need to limit her foul trouble and Maddie Burke probably also needs to knock down a couple of triples.
The crux of this matchup, however, would be Indiana’s ability to contain Maddy Siegrist. The nation’s leading scorer has topped 20-points in every single game this season, and as a 6-foot-2 three level scorer is very difficult to guard. Mackenzie Holmes feels like the most natural fit to defend Siegrist, but Siegrist’s ability to operate on the perimeter and in the mid-range could make that matchup challenging. Indiana has struggled to contain star players throughout the season - from Iowa’s Caitlin Clark to Maryland’s Diamond Miller and Michigan’s Leigha Brown.
Maddy Siegrist can’t win this game alone, but if Villanova’s other role players step up to the challenge, they could keep Indiana on the ropes if they meet in the Sweet 16.
Stanford: 4-seed Texas
The Cardinal’s offense has struggled down the stretch of the regular season, making a potential meeting with Texas’ elite defense in the Sweet 16 perhaps concerning for Stanford. It wouldn’t be the first time Rori Harmon and the Longhorns pulled off an upset over the Cardinal either; they did so in November of last season when Harmon was just a freshman.
Texas ranks sixth in Her Hoop Stats’ defensive rating and the Longhorns have allowed 70 or more points just once in the past two months. However, Texas has also struggled with their own offense and will need that to come together to pull off an upset over the top-seed in their region. BYU transfer Shaylee Gonzales has emerged as more consistent threat from deep during the latter part of the season, despite struggling in the the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns also hope to get DePaul transfer Sonya Morris back for the tournament, who has been their most reliable perimeter threat this year.
If Texas can get things to click enough on the offensive end, their defense could carry them to an upset if Stanford hasn’t made significant strides in fixing their offensive issues over the past two weeks.
UConn: 1-seed Virginia Tech
The top-seed in the region is the obvious pick here. Should this Elite Eight matchup materialize, the Hokies would be on a 14 game winning streak, that’s likely to include victories over South Dakota State and Iowa State or Tennessee, on top of the ACC wins they’ve already racked up.
While center Elizabeth Kitley is the focal point of this Virginia Tech team, if the Hokies were to pull off a win over UConn it’s likely to have more to do with Georgia Amoore. Amoore is been the critical piece in much of Virginia Tech’s recent success, hitting multiple three-pointers in each of her last ten games. She has knocked down four or more triples on 12 occasions this season. That combined with Kitley’s presence in the post and the contributions of Taylor Soule makes this Virginia Tech squad tough to beat
If Amoore was to have a big outing from the perimeter, the Hokies could certainly threaten the upset (though not an upset by seed) over UConn.
Looking for more of my thoughts on the bracket? Here’s a few places you can find them ahead of the first round tomorrow:
Breaking down this year’s title contenders in the Washington Post
Final Four sleeper picks for the 2023 tournament, also for the Washington Post
In depth preview of the full bracket for Her Hoop Stats (video)
Also breaking down the bracket on College Sports Now (podcast)