Potential X-factors for NCAA women's basketball title contenders
Plus, who are the true Final Four contenders in 2023?
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more weekly (or at least close to it) throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
A few weeks back, I re-evaluated the top-tier of NCAA women’s basketball teams. I defined that top tier as South Carolina, Indiana, Stanford and UConn. While both the Cardinal and the Huskies have stumbled some over the past few weeks, that group remains this season’s top tier and the group of legitimate 2023 title contenders.
Every national champion since the 2009-10 season has had one thing in common: each team has ranked in the top to of both Her Hoop Stats’ offensive ratings and Her Hoop Stats’ defensive rating (Her Hoop Stats’ ratings adjust a team’s offensive and defensive rating for strength of schedule). There are just five teams in the country that match that description right now. They are the four aforementioned squads, and LSU.
While the Tigers meet the metric, their best wins of the season are over unranked Tennessee and Alabama. In their lone crack at another top opponent this season, LSU got run out of the gym by South Carolina, losing by 24 points in Columbia. While they’ve been able to pad their statistics with big margins of victory over low-major opponents, I don’t view the Tigers as true title contenders unless they show something different in the SEC tournament this weekend.
It is likely this season’s national champion resides amongst South Carolina, Indiana, Stanford and UConn. Here’s a look at who from each contender could be the X-factor in their team’s chances of lifting the trophy on April 2nd:
South Carolina - Zia Cooke
The Gamecocks remain the favorite to cut down the nets in Dallas. Their depth and intensity on the defensive end gives them the largest margin for error in the country. While already ahead of the rest of the field, how Zia Cooke plays down the stretch has the potential to take this South Carolina team to the next level.
While Cooke’s efficiency on the offensive end is leaps ahead of where she was last year, she’s still plagued by inconsistency in her decision making. Everyone has off shooting nights, but Cooke’s are sometimes compounded with poor shot selection. South Carolina is a much better team when she’s making smart decisions with the ball. The Gamecocks’ net rating is 36 points higher when Cooke shoots over 35 percent from the floor this season, than it is in the nine games where her field goal percentage was below 30 percent.
Indiana - Yarden Garzon
The Hoosiers have one of the best three-point shooters in the country in freshman Yarden Garzon. She’s one of only six players in the country shooting over 45 percent from deep on at least four perimeter attempts per game, per Her Hoop Stats.
Garzon’s offensive production has, however, been inconsistent over the last month of the season. She has reached double figures and connected on multiple triples in just two of Indiana’s last eight games. If the Hoosiers can consistently get close to three made attempts from deep out of Garzon down the stretch of the season, they’ll have a bigger margin for error in the tournament.
Stanford - Hannah Jump
The Cardinal needs a more consistent third scoring option beyond Haley Jones and Cameron Brink. While freshmen Talana Lepolo or Lauren Betts could be looked at to deliver that spark, senior Hannah Jump may be the most likely candidate.
Jump is already the team’s third scoring option, averaging 11.6 points per game. However, her contributions on the offensive end ebb and flow with her ability to get hot from deep. Jump can certainly help elevate this Stanford team from the perimeter, but the Cardinal has at times found ways to get her going offensively in other ways. Every one of her double-digit performances since the new year have come when she’s gotten at least two opportunities inside the arc as well. Continuing to use her skillset in varied ways could pay off for the Cardinal in March.
UConn - Caroline Ducharme
The Huskies’ offense has been anemic lately, but Caroline Ducharme’s return to the court offers a potential reprieve for UConn. Ducharme missed over six weeks of action in concussion protocol, so it’s reasonable to expect she will require some time to get back to her full potential on the court. However, the Huskies have already seen a small boost with her eclipsing double figures in two of her first five games back.
If UConn can get more consistent production from Ducharme as they enter the postseason, it should help improve their perimeter shooting and give the Huskies the spark they need off the bench. Prior to her injury, Ducharme scored in double figures in four of her last five games. She also carried the Huskies offensively through much of late December and January as a freshman when Paige Bueckers was injured last season, and is capable of being a go to weapon for UConn down the stretch.
Quick thoughts on who has Final Four potential
Of course, things can get crazy in March and upsets can clear the path for unexpected teams to make the trip to Dallas. The way matchups fall in the bracket will also impact who has the best shot at making the Final Four, but my list of teams I could realistically see making it to the final weekend right now would be:
South Carolina
Indiana
Stanford
UConn
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame (assuming Olivia Miles is healthy)
Texas
Maryland
LSU (maybe)
Utah and Iowa are noticeably absent from this list. As potent as both offenses are, the lackluster defense of both squads leaves them too vulnerable to early exits. No team with a Her Hoop Stats defensive rating outside of the top-40 has reached the Final Four since 2010 (the start of the Her Hoop Stats database). Utah and Iowa ranks 46th and 54th, respectively.