Why the Big Ten and Big 12 will have a huge impact on the title race
What to watch for from the top contenders in their conference tournaments
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture. View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long.
Happy March! Conference tournaments are underway, and we’re less than two weeks out from Selection Sunday. South Carolina, Stanford, NC State and UConn all begin their post-season runs in the coming days, with five of the six major conference tournaments taking place over this weekend.
While the individual outcomes for each of those teams is certainly important, it’s likely that the Big Ten tournament (this week) and Big 12 tournament (next week) will actually be the ones that have the largest impact on the championship picture.
While neither conference features a top contender for the national championship (although Baylor is making a late push to have a case), they will dramatically impact the path to Minneapolis for the title contenders. Both conferences had four teams in the top 16 seeds in the committee’s third and final pre-Selection Sunday reveal on Monday evening.
Bracketing rules prevent the top four seeds from any individual conference from being assigned to the same region if they are on the top four seed lines. As the top 16 currently stands, all four Big Ten teams (#8 Michigan, #12 Maryland, #14 Iowa and #15 Indiana) and all four Big 12 teams (#5 Baylor, #6 Iowa State, #10 Texas and #16 Oklahoma) must be placed in different regions. This has a substantial impact on who the No. 1 seeds are paired with, and the committee’s ability to adhere to a true S-curve in building the bracket. For the Huskies, it will also have a significant impact on their ability to be in Bridgeport - as seen by their placement in Greensboro in the reveal.
The good news for fans that may not be please with their team’s path to Minnesota as it stood in Monday’s reveal, is that things are bound to change over the next two weeks. Just 30 minutes after the reveal, Iowa State suffered a 25-point loss to Baylor. While the Cyclones should still be a No. 2 seed following the blowout, their overall placement on that line changes - which will have a domino effect on the regional placement on the No. 3 and No. 4 seed lines.
With conference tournaments upcoming and all of the Big Ten and Big 12 teams on course to meet each other in that span, someone has to lose. It is unlikely that Iowa and Indiana will both stay in the top 16 seeds. Oklahoma could also drop out, and the remaining Big Ten and Big 12 teams will likely also move up or down from their current positions. How teams are placed into regions as a result is likely to change a lot between today and March 13th.
What I’m watching for from each contender as conference tournaments get under way:
South Carolina: Keep an eye on if Zia Cooke can get hot at the right time. Right now, Destanni Henderson, who’s shooting 40 percent from three this season, is South Carolina’s only real threat from deep. Cooke is a capable outside shooter as well (she shot 39 percent from three last season), but has struggled with her shot this year. If she can start knocking down some looks from the perimeter, it would help the Gamecocks space the floor better and give them an extra edge in March.
Stanford: The Cardinal haven’t exactly been excelling on the defensive glass lately. In two of their last five games, Stanford allowed their opponents to collect close to 40 percent of their own misses. As the Cardinal gets deeper into March and the margin for error in each game shrinks, winning the rebounding margin will come with increased importance. Look to see if Stanford can put together some better rebounding performances in the Pac-12 tournament to start the post season.
NC State: The Wolfpack are already an incredibly strong team on the offensive end, ranking third in the nation for points per 100 possessions. However, they don’t excel in creating transition opportunities and average only 7.4 steals per game (44th percentile). I’m curious to see if the Wolfpack can up their defensive pressure heading into the post-season to create more opportunities for easy baskets. As they say, defense wins championships.
UConn: The Huskies are one of the most intriguing teams in the post season, as we really haven’t seen what this team looks like at full health this season. Since Paige Bueckers return, UConn won it’s last two games of the regular season by over 50 points. However, those wins came over St. John’s and Providence, making it hard to take too much away from them. If the Huskies can keep it rolling in the Big East tournament against tougher competition (i.e. DePaul, Villanova, Creighton), and get more minutes out of Bueckers as she works her way back, it will be more convincing that they’re a team you don’t want on your side of the bracket in March.
Indiana is my bet to drop out from the Big 10. Michigan will drop down from a 2 seed. Oklahoma will probably drop out and Texas down. (They still have a full slate of games that are landmines for the contenders for 1-4 spots.) If dropouts happen, it may be a problem if UNC and ND have good ACC runs. They could give them 4 in the top 16. Although anyone who sees ND as a top 16 after that first half against Louisville needs a breathalyzer.
UConn has been on a roll since the Villanova game. Then Liv and Caroline came back they rolled faster. With Paige back they're rolling so fast their wheels are smoking. No one is going to want to see them in their bracket.
Geno says he doesn't care where they're placed, but those of us that bought tickets do. I get it if their play doesn't warrant it, but that's not the case. Michigan had a terrible loss and didn't move. Indiana had lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5 and Still is top 16? By any objective metric (NET, HHS, Warren Nolan, Massey) UConn should at least be in the top 8. But the committee values getting blown out in a Power 5 rather than winning 7 straight by an average 40.
And what happened to taking injuries into account. Jordan Horston and Mackenzie Holmes go down but Tennessee and Indiana are still there. UConn has the POY and 6 others miss 45 games. Now all of them are back and healthy and...nothing.
In the end, it won't matter. Like being 31-2 and ranked 2nd in the country in 2018, but seeded 2nd in the Albany region. You win or you don't. Ok, I've got it out of my system.