Who could stand in the way of a trip to the Final Four for the top contenders?
A look at what potential matchups could be the toughest for South Carolina, Stanford, NC State and UConn on the road to Minneapolis
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture. View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long.
Happy March Madness! The tournament is finally here. The women’s first ever First Four wrapped up Thursday evening, and the round of 64 tips off today.
We also now have a much better look at what the path to a title could look like for each of this season’s top contenders. NC State and UConn both get a tough draw, having to get through the one another for a trip to Minneapolis, but the draw could be worse for NC State with a potential near-home court advantage for the Huskies in Bridgeport should they meet. South Carolina and Stanford fall as the No. 1 and No. 2 overall seeds as expected. The Gamecocks would not have to face any of Stanford, UConn or NC State until the national title game (should they get there, of course).
While South Carolina and Stanford are heavy favorites to emerge from their regions, and NC State and UConn are expected to be on a collision course in the Elite Eight, let’s take a look at the toughest potential matchups that could stand in the way of a Final Four trip for these contenders (other than each other in the case of the Wolfpack and the Huskies):
For South Carolina: No. 3 Iowa State
South Carolina’s two losses have come when their opponent scored 64 or more points (which only three teams managed against the Gamecocks this season), and in both outings their opponents shot over 40 percent from deep.
Teams tend to take a lot of threes against the Gamecocks to avoid their stellar interior defense and rim protection, and as a result their opponents have made 117 threes this season, the 12th most in the nation. That’s not to say South Carolina’s perimeter defense isn’t also good - they’re holding their opponents to 27% from beyond the arc. Still, if a team can get hot from deep, at an average of 71 points per game and shooting only 31.6% from deep themselves, the Gamecocks’ offense could have trouble keeping up.
The Gamecock’s are on a potential collision path with two teams in the Elite Eight that could be a threat to do just that for deep. Of course No. 2 seed Iowa boasts Caitlin Clark’s seemingly limitless range from three, but No. 3 Iowa State would likely pose the biggest threat to the Gamecocks.
Iowa State is shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc on the season, which ranks second in the country. Additionally, the Cyclones have made more threes than any team in the country this season and scored over 40 percent of their points from deep this year, meaning that taking a lot of triples is a part of their normal game plan. Five players are consistent threats from deep, including All-American Ashely Joens. That could give South Carolina trouble.
For Stanford: No. 2 Texas
I know, I know - of course, the No. 2 seed in the region is the toughest matchup but I just don’t see any other team in the region having the potential to upset Stanford. The two teams would meet if chalk held, in a rematch of the Cardinal’s early season loss to the Longhorns, in the Elite Eight.
While Stanford has significantly improved their ball handling since November, the biggest struggle for the Cardinal has been turnovers. On the flip side, what makes Texas’ defense so good is their ability to turn teams over. On the season, the Longhorns have turned their opponents over 21.3 times per game on average and per Her Hoop Stats, their opponents turn the ball over a quarter of their possessions (26.4%, 5th in the nation).
Texas is also a foul prone team, sending opponents to the line on nearly 20 percent of their two-point attempts. Stanford has shot just 68 percent from the line this season, which ranks among the bottom third of the country. If Texas can turn Stanford over and the Cardinal can’t capitalize at the free throw line, it could be enough to at least take their offense out of its rhythm.
For NC State: No. 9 Kansas State
A common theme for NC State in their losses this season has been an ability to guard the paint. The Wolfpack lost to South Carolina (read: Aliyah Boston), Georgia and Notre Dame. In the latter two their opponents’ starting center, Jenna Staiti and Maya Dodson, had 20-10 outings. Even in their big comeback win over Louisville, the Wolfpack had no answer for Olivia Cochran who had 19 points in the game - her most of the season.
NC State has not been great at defending inside all season long. Per Synergy, they’re allowing 0.87 points per play on post-ups and 0.98 points per play around the basket. Both of those only rank in the 60th percentile. That leaves the Wolfpack vulnerable when matched up with an elite post player.
That could happen in the round of 32 should Kansas State advance over Washington State. The Wildcats did play NC State earlier this season, in an early season matchup which the Wolfpack won handedly. However, Kansas State is collectively better as a team now with more experience under the belts of their freshmen. Ayoka Lee had 19 points and 11 rebounds in that meeting, which is a strong performance, but Lee is capable of scoring more.
Lee dropped 61 points on Oklahoma earlier this season and has recorded more than 30 points eight times this season. If she can have an explosive offensive performance, the Wildcats could give NC State some trouble.
For UConn: No. 6 Kentucky
If Kentucky stays hot and makes a run to the Sweet 16, it could make for an interesting matchup for the Huskies. As great as Maddy Siegrist is, it’s been a while since the Huskies have had to guard a No. 1 draft pick level talent like Rhyne Howard.
As part of Kentucky’s impressive run through the SEC tournament, Howard averaged 24.6 points per game against three solid defenses in LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina (even if the Gamecocks were far from playing their best defense in the SEC tournament). She was more aggressive about her own shot and was successful at landing on the free throw line as well.
The Huskies have been locked in on the defensive end, particularly through the end of the regular season and Big East tournament, but Howard could present a challenging matchup for them. UConn also doesn’t have an idea candidate to guard her. Christyn Williams has been their best defender, but would be a bit undersized in the matchup. Aaliyah Edwards did a fantastic job on Siegrist in the Big East tournament, but could have trouble guarding Howard on the perimeter.
Let’s pick a bracket
I thought I’d share my bracket with you all. While I don’t have many hot takes on who is going to make the Final Four, I do think we could see a lot of upsets in the early rounds. Many very good mid major programs feel very under-seeded in this tournament.
In case you’re curious to hear more about my thoughts on the full field and each region, I’ve talked about it quite a bit this week:
Megan - Oregon beats Baylor? Also - you watched Dayton dismantle DePaul right? Does it bode ill for the Big East teams?