Title contenders: By the numbers
Which teams do the numbers tell us could cut down the nets in Cleveland?
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
Dating back to the 2009-10 season (the start of the Her Hoop Stats database), every National Championship winner has ranked amongst the top 10 in Her Hoop Stats Offensive and Defensive ratings. That’s not necessarily surprising, as the team to lift the final trophy is likely to be elite on both ends of the floor.
This year’s NCAA women’s tournament is anticipated to be the most exciting yet. The star power in this year’s tournament is also reaching new heights. Perhaps Caitlin Clark or Juju Watkins, for example, can make this year the one that breaks the mold. Iowa ranks first in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating but 24th on the defensive end and Southern California ranks outside the top 10 in both metrics, but both the Hawkeyes and the Trojans are No. 1 seeds.
If the mold does hold, however, just five teams rank in the top 10 for both measures entering March Madness:
South Carolina (No. 1 Seed, Albany 1)
No. 2 in HHS Offensive Rating, No. 1 in HHS Defensive Rating
Unsurprisingly the undefeated Gamecocks are once again amongst the elite on both ends of the court. By every metric around South Carolina is the top team in the country, and their defense remains the best nationally while their Her Hoop Stats offensive rating is second only to Iowa. That’s improved from last year’s team, which was also favored to win it all, which had the sixth best offensive rating per Her Hoop Stats.
Stanford (No. 2 Seed, Portland 4)
No. 4 in HHS Offensive Rating, No. 7 in HHS Defensive Rating
Stanford fell to a No. 2 seed after losing in the Pac-12 championship game to Southern California. That lands the Cardinal in the same regional as the same region as another team on this list, with Texas as the top seed in the Portland 4 region. Anchored by Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen in the post, if Stanford can get some consistent shooting from their backcourt in March they are capable of contending for a national title.
UConn (No. 3 Seed, Portland 3)
No. 5 in HHS Offensive Rating, No. 2 in HHS Defensive Rating
The Huskies are a perplexing case. Ravished by injuries once again, UConn is a top three team in most rating systems (excluding the AP poll), but has fallen short of beating anyone on the top four seed lines this season. However, Paige Bueckers played at such a high level in the Huskies’ Big East tournament run, making it hard to count UConn out in this year’s title picture.
Texas (No. 1 Seed, Portland 4)
No. 6 in HHS Offensive Rating, No. 3 in HHS Defensive Rating
When Rori Harmon went down with an ACL tear in December, it seemed like title hopes for the Longhorns might be now just a lofty dream. Insert Madison Booker. The freshman phenom is averaging 16.9 points and 4.9 assists per game, and already has Big 12 Co-player of the Year and Big 12 Tournament Most Outstanding Player accolades to her name. Title hopes are alive and well in Austin with Texas being placed on the top seed line on Sunday.
LSU (No. 3 Seed, Albany 2)
No. 8 in HHS Offensive Rating, No. 6 in HHS Defensive Rating
The reigning national champions enter March Madness looking ready to repeat. The Tigers are part of what may be the toughest region in the field. The Albany 2 regional features Iowa, UCLA and LSU as its top three teams. Still the Tigers have been playing their best basketball as of late. Even with star freshman Mikaylah Williams being limited to around 20 minutes in the SEC tournament final, the Tigers still kept it close with undefeated South Carolina for the second time this season, this time on a neutral court.
Outside looking in
Three teams just miss the metrics above but are worth keeping an eye on. UCLA is particularly close at 11th in Her Hoop Stats offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating. A strong showing in the early rounds for the Bruins could push them up a spot to meet the “championship criteria” come April.
While not as close as the Bruins, Ohio State and Notre Dame aren’t far off. The Buckeyes rank amongst the top-15 in both metrics. The Irish are elite on the defensive end at 5th, and amongst the top-20 on the offensive end. However, yesterday’s news that Kylee Watson will be out for the tournament could stunt Notre Dame’s chances at a deep run.
More thoughts on 2024 title contenders
I also wrote about the top five title contenders, including four teams listed above and the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Washington Post here.
This, like all your CC hating, held up well!