Tiering the top teams in women's college basketball right now
After weeks of chaos, individual rankings are difficult to decipher, but the top women's college basketball teams are beginning to divide themselves into tiers
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
The 2022-23 season is officially here. If you followed along with me last year, welcome back! If you’re new here, View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more weekly (or at least close to it) throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
The last few weeks of women’s college basketball have served up their fair share of chaos. We’ve seen plenty of upsets and major shifts in the rankings.
While the top two teams are still clear, trying to decipher who the best teams are beyond No.1 and No. 2 right now is not an easy task. This early on in the season, identifying tiers at the top can be more helpful to understanding the college basketball landscape than splitting hairs over individual rankings.
Below I’ve divided up how I see the top five tiers in women’s college basketball right now (note, the order of teams within each category is not hierarchical).
There’s not much of a surprise at the very top. Both South Carolina and Stanford still exist in a tier above the rest, as they entered the season. We’ve already seen these two teams battle it out on the court in an overtime thriller on the west coast, which ended with a Gamecock victory.
The next set of teams - UConn and Indiana - have set themselves apart with their resumes thus far this season. The Huskies have played in four top-10 matchups, with a record of 3-1 in those contests. While the Texas win doesn’t look as good now with the Longhorns stumbling, UConn still boasts high quality wins over NC State (+22) and Iowa (+7). The Huskies did falter against Notre Dame on Sunday with their star sophomore guard Azzi Fudd leaving the game due to injury, which keeps them from pushing the border into the top tier. UConn will have to weather the next three to six weeks without Fudd which will teach us a lot about this team in the interim.
Indiana is in a similar boat with injuries and currently without their star, Grace Berger, who suffered a knee injury during a Thanksgiving tournament in Las Vegas. The timetable for Berger’s return is still unclear, but the Hoosiers have impressed even without their veteran leader in the backcourt. Indiana remains undefeated, and picked up an impressive 24-point victory over North Carolina last week. Oregon transfer Sydney Parrish has excelled in adapting to a starting role in Berger’s absence, which will only make this team better when she returns.
The third tier is where things start to get more complicated. Each of these six teams have impressed in a way that separates them from the next two groups, but still have some questions to answer, which leave them out of the second tier. For Notre Dame, Sunday’s dominant win over UConn perhaps leaves them pushing the brink of Tier 2, but the Maryland loss just three days earlier stops the Irish from making the jump. The key for Notre Dame is demonstrating a stronger post presence. Lauren Ebo was able to do so against the Huskies, but has been inconsistent so far this season.
Ohio State is checking a lot of the boxes as a top team with their balanced offense and debilitating full-court press, but the Buckeyes have yet to demonstrate success against a top opponent. Wins over Tennessee and Louisville simply don’t look as good now that the Vols and Cardinals have plummeted out of the rankings. Perhaps my biggest question for Ohio State, however, is does the press do enough defensively to compete against the top? While the Buckeyes are generating 28 turnovers per game, some of their other defensive metrics (i.e. opponents shooting nearly 50 percent on twos) are dismal.
Both North Carolina teams have been handed a large loss by a tier two team, but both have also picked up a statement win - over Iowa for NC State and over Iowa State for North Carolina. The Tar Heels had to pull off a large comeback for their win over the Cyclones, as well as their Oregon win over Thanksgiving. More consistency from buzzer to buzzer will be key going forward.
While with the loss to North Carolina, Iowa State lacks a statement win they make it into the third tier on the eye test. Stephanie Soares answers some of the questions from last year about the Cyclone’s post presence, and this looks like a top ten team. UCLA also makes it in on the eye test after a strong run through the Battle 4 Atlantis and putting up a very tough fight in Columbia last week against South Carolina. The Bruins are relying on many of the young pieces in their top ranked recruiting class, and should only get better as the year goes on.
In the fourth tier, the first three teams (Utah, Michigan, Virginia Tech) are all undefeated thus far and boast resumes that feature good but not yet statement making wins. We need to see more from each of these teams against top opponents, which will happen in due time in conference play. Oregon, while not undefeated, falls here for similar reasons. The Ducks impressed in a tight loss to North Carolina, but we need to see more from them against tough competition.
Iowa is also included in the fourth tier because while the Hawkeyes have faltered against a tough schedule, Caitlin Clark and their offense should be enough to compete with this next level of teams consistently. Creighton also falls here after starting the season off hot, following a streak of three ugly offensive games for the Bluejays, the last of which landed them their first loss of the year to St. John’s.
Lastly, tier five encompasses a hodge-podge of teams. This group hasn’t yet proved themselves to be amongst the other tiers, but I am also not ready to count them out. Maryland, as an example, has a confusing resume that features both strong wins and head scratching losses. LSU simply has not played any high quality opponents yet, and may continue to be hard to evaluate until SEC play is underway. Arizona’s strength of schedule also leaves a lot to be desired. Baylor and Gonzaga have all impressed at times, and underwhelmed at others. Despite a very rocky start to the season for Texas, the Longhorns are too talented and too well coached to write off just yet. The coming weeks for these teams should tell us a lot about if they deserve a place amongst the top teams, or will fall off in conference play.