The case for Stanford to repeat
A spotless Pac-12 record suggests the Cardinal is right at the top with the Gamecocks
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South Carolina is deservingly the favorite to win the 2022 NCAA title. The Gamecocks still have only one loss on the season, and clearly have the best resume in the country. However, while Stanford is certainly not flying under the radar as the No. 2 team, it does feel like there’s a perception that the Gamecocks are the run away favorite over the Cardinal to win it all. While Stanford’s early season troubles made that notion reasonable prior to the start of the new year, the Cardinal’s spotless Pac-12 record suggests that the margin is closing.
Stanford hasn’t lost a game since they faced South Carolina on the road prior to the Christmas holiday. The Cardinal played an impressive first half in Columbia, but failure to take care of the ball in the second half cost them their shot at the upset and Stanford fell to the Gamecocks by a small margin of four points. The expected margin between the two remains small heading into March; currently Her Hoop Stats gives South Carolina a 60.5 percent chance of beating Stanford on a neutral court with a projected margin of victory of 2.9 points.
Turnovers, the largest problem for the Cardinal in that loss and throughout this season, is something they’ve moved the needle on significantly during conference play. Prior to the start of Pac-12 games, the Cardinal was averaging over 15 turnovers per game; since conference play tipped off, they’re averaging just over 12 turnovers.
Particularly, within the month of February, Stanford has done a much better job of taking care of the ball. They’ve recorded four games within the month with ten or fewer turnovers (something which had only happened three times in the prior three months of the season). Much of the credit for the improvement goes to Anna Wilson, who has been an exceptional ball handler down the final stretch of the regular season. Wilson has recorded just five turnovers in February and has posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of 6.44 over Stanford’s last seven games. For frame of reference, Paige Bueckers assist-to-turnover ratio (in the six games she played to start the season) which ranks first in the country, is 4.11. Wilson has well surpassed that mark for Stanford over the last month. Including all of Pac-12 play, she’s at an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.92 which is not far off that mark.
It may be four months in the making, but it seems that the Cardinal have found their answer at the point guard position. And while Aliyah Boston and the Gamecocks’ edge on the defensive end can still make them the favorites, Stanford’s improved edge on the offensive end collapses the gap. Coupling better ball handling down the stretch with the Cardinal’s many capable three-point threats, Haley Jones’ versatility and Cameron Brink’s presence inside makes Stanford’s offensive firepower very difficult to overcome - even for a squad as deep as the Gamecocks. Heading into March, the favorite for the title should be a pretty even split between the expected SEC and Pac-12 champions.
In significant news for the 2022 title picture, Paige Bueckers will make her return to the court for UConn on Friday evening against St. John’s. The Huskies have two remaining regular season games, leading up to the Big East tournament. With Bueckers’ return, the start of postseason play next weekend should give some indication of what UConn looks like at full strength. More to come on that next week.