Midseason evaluation: NCAA women's basketball championship contenders
Beyond the obvious answers of South Carolina and UCLA, which teams meet the championship criteria so far in 2023-24?
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
Happy New Year! Conference play is underway and we’re near the midpoint of the 2023-24 regular season. Last year, ahead of the tournament, I took a look at the last dozen champions by the numbers. They all had one thing in common - they ranked in the top-10 for both Her Hoop Stats’ offensive and defensive ratings. The same was true of the 2023 champion. The LSU Tigers finished the season ranked fifth in both Her Hoop Stats offensive rating and defensive rating.
There’s plenty of basketball to be played still this season, which will certainly shift where things stand today. That said, with half the season under our belts, we can start to evaluate which teams might meet that criteria come March. Looking at the Her Hoop Stats ratings as of games through January 7th, six teams currently meet the criteria of ranking in the top 10 for both the offensive and defensive metric.
South Carolina
1st in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 1st in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
The Gamecocks, despite having a largely new look this season, are in familiar territory and back on top in both metrics. South Carolina holds true to its identity with a strong defense, but the elevated guard play from the addition of Te-Hina Paopao and growth of Raven Johnson and Bree Hall has taken the offense to the next level.
Stanford
3rd in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 2nd in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
Following the offseason, many may not have predicted to see the Cardinal on this list in January, but Stanford is once again amongst the top teams in the country. Cameron Brink is unsurprisingly at the center of that success, but it’s the emergence of Kiki Iriafen alongside Brink in the post that has really elevated this year’s team.
UConn
4th in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 4th in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
Many Huskies’ fans may have been hitting the panic button after three early season losses and Azzi Fudd’s season ending injury, but UConn seems to have found its groove recently with a string of convincing top-25 wins.
Indiana
6th in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 5th in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list, Indiana once again finds themselves a member of the contenders in 2024. Despite having to fill a Grace Berger sized hole in the backcourt, the Hoosiers have the best field goal percentage offense in the country and a top-five assist to turnover ratio.
Texas
7th in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 3rd in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
The Longhorns looked the part of a championship contender to start the season. However, Rori Harmon’s season ending injury in January puts a damper on that outlook. Time will tell if Texas can weather that storm enough to still make a deep run.
UCLA
10th in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating | 10th in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating
While just scraping by into the top-10 in both metrics, the Bruins seems to have all the pieces of a championship team. The addition of Stanford transfer Lauren Betts has been the complement in the lane that UCLA needed to its already strong guard play.
Given that conference play is likely to drive some movement, it’s worth looking at those teams that are also close to meeting the metric currently. Five teams rank in the top-15 for both metrics. Iowa is the closest, ranking second in Her Hoop Stats’ offensive rating and just outside the top-10 at 11th in defensive rating. It certainly would not be far fetched to see Caitlin Clark and company back in the Final Four in April. The reigning champions are also not far off. LSU ranks eighth in offensive rating, and 12th in defensive rating.
Utah (5th in offensive rating and 14th and defensive rating) and Notre Dame (13th and 9th) are also in striking distance, but injuries to key pieces and the grind of power conference play could hold these two teams back from climbing further.
Baylor rounds out the group of five, ranking 15th in offensive rating and 7th in defensive rating. As the Bears continue to climb in the polls, they’re certainly a team to keep an eye on in the championship picture.
If you’re looking for a few dark horse candidates, Virginia Tech, Ohio State and NC State all rank in the top-20 for both Her Hoop Stats’ offensive and defensive metric. The climb may be longer to the top-10, but certainly not impossible. NC State is particularly intriguing, as the only member of this group with a top-10 metric in either category. The Wolfpack rank sixth in Her Hoop Stats’ defensive rating.
