Is Ohio State this season's Virginia Tech?
Once looking like unlikely contenders, the Buckeyes have now won 10 straight games, leaving a Big Ten Championship, a No. 1 seed and a trip to Cleveland back in reach
Welcome to View from the Top, a NCAA women’s basketball newsletter focused on the title contenders and championship picture.
View from the Top covers the top teams in the country with an eye towards March all season long. I’ll be sharing my thoughts on the top teams in the country, who the true title contenders are and more throughout the season. Thanks for following along!
Last season, Virginia Tech looked like an unlikely championship contender in early January. However the Hokies, led by the emergence of Georgia Amoore as a star down the stretch, won 14 of their last 15 games of the season including an ACC tournament championship. That catapulted Virginia Tech to the No. 1 seed line on Selection Sunday and eventually led to a program first Final Four, before the Hokies fell to eventual the eventual champions, LSU.
As the calendar has turned to February, the Ohio State Buckeyes look like they could look primed to replicate Tech’s path from last season. Falling short of preseason expectations early with an opening day loss to Southern California, Ohio State looked as if it may not be amongst the elite tier this season. The Buckeyes also dropped their only other marquee non-conference matchup to UCLA in a game that was much more decisive than the final margin of six points suggests. That coupled with an early in conference play loss to Michigan made dreams of Cleveland look bleak.
Fast forward a little over a month, and Ohio State is now the owner of ten straight wins, including victories over both Iowa and Indiana at home. The trajectory for this Buckeyes squad now looks much different. And with six games left in the Big Ten regular season, there’s still at least one more look at Iowa to look forward to. A strong close to the regular season and a good run in the Big Ten tournament could certainly put the Buckeyes on a path to the top seed line.
But, what’s behind Ohio State’s new found success over the last 10 games? It starts with the emergence of Cotie McMahon in the big moments. McMahon has anchored the Buckeyes in their two statement wins of this stretch, scoring a career high 33-points against Iowa and delivering 20 against Indiana. On both occasions, McMahon has combined with leading scorer Jacy Sheldon for two Buckeyes with 20 or more point outbursts.
The Buckeyes’ defense has also taken a step forward in this stretch. Opponents are still getting to the rim for over 40 percent of their field goal attempts, but Ohio State has been able to hold opponents to 54 percent shooting there, which ranks in the 75th percentile. That’s still not great - but coupled with the Buckeyes nation leading (per CBB analytics) 26.5 percent defensive field goal percentage in the paint over the last 10 games, Ohio State’s interior defense has made impressive strides forward in a matter of weeks.
The Buckeyes’ also continue to do the things well that are consistent with their identity. They are amongst the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, and at taking care of the ball on their own end. That creates easy looks when they come up with the steal while limiting their opponents’ transition opportunities. Sheldon continues to play at a high level, night in and night out, carrying the team’s offense and press. All of that made Ohio State good - but the latest explosion from McMahon and improvement on the defensive end gives Ohio State the opportunity to be elite.
Sitting a top the Big Ten standings with Iowa now, both at 11-1, the Buckeyes have a clash with Michigan State on Sunday that shouldn’t be overlooked. The Spartans haven’t backed down easily this season, taking the Hawkeyes to overtime, and will be a tough road game for Ohio State. If the Buckeyes’ get the win, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the regular season finale at Iowa decide the conference champion.