Bad week or larger issues at play for Ohio State?
The Buckeyes lost their first two games of the season this week. Those losses may have exposed some more long-term concerns.
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Entering this week there were three undefeated teams remaining in the country. Now we’re down to just two - South Carolina and LSU. No. 2 Ohio State dropped their first game of the season at home against No. 10 Iowa on Monday night, and followed it up with another loss at No. 6 Indiana on Thursday. The Buckeyes dropped to 19-2 on the season and third place in the Big Ten standings as a result.
With both Iowa and Indiana ranking amongst the top-10 in the AP poll and NET rankings, neither loss files as a “bad” loss for the Buckeyes. The similarities between the two games, however, does raise questions about this Ohio State team going forward and their outlook in March.
There is certainly an argument that this has just been a bad week for the Buckeyes. They shot an uncharacteristic 16 percent from deep against Iowa, and connected for a season low three triples at Indiana. Bad shooting nights are bound to happen, and if Ohio State was closer to their average 7.6 makes per game from the perimeter, they may have ended both games in the win column.
Additionally, Ohio State is still without star guard Jacy Sheldon. They’ve been resilient so far to both her absence, and Madison Greene’s season ending injury. Perhaps those were bound to catchup with the Buckeyes eventually against top teams. Sheldon could have been the difference in both games as well, averaging 16 points and six steals per game before suffering a foot injury. Head coach Kevin McGuff alluded that her return may be coming soon on the Locked On Women’s Basketball podcast this week.
However, two common threads in this week’s losses raise some broader concerns for Ohio State. First, entering this week the Buckeyes were forcing an average of 9.4 more turnovers per game than they were committing. Against Iowa and Indiana, that margin shrunk to just 3.5 turnovers. While a narrowing margin should be expected against top-10 caliber opponents, the presence of veteran guards in Caitlin Clark and Grace Berger further reduced the effectiveness of Ohio State’s press.
A less impactful press is a double edged sword for the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s field goal defense ranks 216th in the country per Her Hoop Stats, but their ability to turn their opponents over ranks them 40th nationally when looking at defense from a points per play viewpoint. When the Buckeyes’ opponents are able to get into their half-court sets, like both Iowa and Indiana did, they are able to find success. Additionally, over a quarter of Ohio State’s made field goals this season have come in transition, so fewer forced turnovers reduces their offensive production as well.
The losses against Iowa and Indiana also brought a season long issue for the Buckeyes to the forefront - their inability to defend in the lane. Rebeka Mikulasikova has made large strides forward inside on the offensive end for Ohio State this season, but still struggles to keep up defensively against teams with a strong inside presence. That resulted in Iowa’s Monika Czinano putting up 22 points on Monday, and Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes scoring 26 on Thursday night. Both shot an efficient 84.6 percent from the floor in their matchups with the Buckeyes.
While exemplified in the past two games, interior defense has been an issue for Ohio State from the start this season. The Buckeyes’ opponents are shooting 48.6 percent on twos, which ranks 296th in the country. Those struggles are even more pronounced at the rim. Per CBB analytics, Ohio State’s opponents have shot 61.8 percent at rim on the season, which ranks in just the 15th percentile. Over the last five games, that figure has been 67 percent, which ranks among the worst two percent of the country.
Most of the teams the Buckeyes can expect to encounter in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds of the NCAA tournament come March are going to feature an inside presence. If Ohio State can’t figure out a way to be more effective defensively around the basket, it could impede their chances of making a trip to Dallas to end the season.